Fascioliasis in buffaloes: A 5-year forecast analysis of the disease based on a 15-year survey in Brazil.

In South America, fascioliasis caused by the trematode Fasciola hepatica is an anthropozoonosis disease associated with significant economic losses and poor animal welfare. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of F. hepatica in the liver of buffaloes slaughtered from 2003 to 2017 in Brazil, and to perform a forecast analysis of the disease for the next five years using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Data analysis revealed an incidence of 7,187 cases out of 226,561 individuals. The disease presented a considerable interannual variation (p<0.005). Fasciola hepatica was more prevalent in the southern states of Brazil; Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina, presenting 11.9, 7.7, and 3.2% of infected livers, respectively. The high frequency of liver condemnation in Paraná was influenced by weather conditions. The ARIMA models calculated a constant trend of the disease, depicting an average of its future prevalence. The models also described a worse-case and a positive-case scenario, calculating the effects of intervention measurements. In reality, there is an urgent need for regular diagnostic in the animals (fecal and immune diagnose) and in the environment (intermediate host), in order to avoid the high rates of infection.

Fascioliasis in buffaloes: A 5-year forecast analysis of the disease based on a 15-year survey in Brazil / Fasciolose em búfalos: uma análise de previsão de 5 anos da doença com base em uma pesquisa de 15 anos no Brasil

Abstract In South America, fascioliasis caused by the trematode Fasciola hepatica is an anthropozoonosis disease associated with significant economic losses and poor animal welfare. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of F. hepatica in the liver of buffaloes slaughtered from 2003 to 2017 in Brazil, and to perform a forecast analysis of the disease for the next five years using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Data analysis revealed an incidence of 7,187 cases out of 226,561 individuals. The disease presented a considerable interannual variation (p<0.005). Fasciola hepatica was more prevalent in the southern states of Brazil; Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina, presenting 11.9, 7.7, and 3.2% of infected livers, respectively. The high frequency of liver condemnation in Paraná was influenced by weather conditions. The ARIMA models calculated a constant trend of the disease, depicting an average of its future prevalence. The models also described a worse-case and a positive-case scenario, calculating the effects of intervention measurements. In reality, there is an urgent need for regular diagnostic in the animals (fecal and immune diagnose) and in the environment (intermediate host), in order to avoid the high rates of infection.

Resumo Na América do Sul, a fasciolose causada pelo Trematoda Fasciola hepatica é uma antropozoonose associada a perdas econômicas significativas e baixo grau de bem-estar animal. O objetivo deste estudo foi determinar a prevalência de F. hepatica no fígado de búfalos abatidos entre 2003 a 2017 e realizar uma análise de previsão da doença para os próximos cinco anos, utilizando o modelo Auto-Regressivo Integrado de Médias Móveis (ARIMA). A análise dos dados revelou uma incidência total de 7.187 casos em 226.561 indivíduos. Houve um acentuado grau de variação interanual nas taxas de prevalência (p<0,005). Fasciola hepatica foi mais prevalente nos estados do sul do Brasil; Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina, com 11,9; 7,7; e 3,2% de fígados condenados, respectivamente. A alta incidência de condenação de fígado no Paraná foi influenciada pelo fator climático. Os modelos ARIMA indicaram uma tendência constante na ocorrência da doença, destacando um padrão futuro da doença. Os modelos também descreveram cenários de piora e de possível melhoria, calculando os efeitos de medidas de intervenção. Assim, existe a urgência de realizar diagnóstico constante nos animais (coprológico e diagnóstico imunológico) e no ambiente, para que se evite os altos índices de infecção.

Bovine fascioliasis in Brazil: Economic impact and forecasting.

Fasciola hepatica causes liver damage and poor growth in cattle and other animals, including humans. Although the disease occurs throughout the country, it is hyperendemic in cattle in the South of Brazil. This work aimed to determine the economical loss by carcass weight variance using data from all the states where F. hepatica is found, as well as to run a disease forecast analysis for the Rio Grande do Sul State. We found a direct loss of approximately US$ 210 million/year from infected cattle in Brazil and the ARIMA model analysis revealed that an increase of fascioliasis is most probable if no parasite control program is adopted.

Gonadotrophin releasing hormone-based vaccine, an effective candidate for prostate cancer and other hormone-sensitive neoplasms.

Prostate growth, development, functions, and neoplastic transformation is androgen dependent. Estrogens have similar effects in the ovary and breast. Previous studies using gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH/LHRH) vaccines have shown the usefulness of immunization against this hormone in prostate (PC) and breast cancer (BC). We have synthesized a peptide mutated at position 6 and attached to the 830-844 tetanic toxoid (TT) helper T cell sequence in the same synthesis process. After repeated pig immunizations, we have demonstrated a vaccine that significantly decreased testes size (p < 0.001), prostate (p < 0.01), seminal vesicles (p < 0.01), and testosterone (T) castration [0.05 nM ml(-1) (p < 0. 01)]. Similar results were obtained in adult male and female healthy dogs and Macaca fascicularis models. These data indicate that this GnRHm1-TT vaccine is safe and able to induce significant tumor growth inhibition in the Dunning R3327-H rat androgen responsive prostate tumor model. In these rats, the immunization induced high anti-GnRH titers concomitant with T castration reduction (p < 0.01) in 90% of the animals tested. In addition, 70% of the responders exhibited tumor growth inhibition (p = 0.02) and a survival rate approximately three times longer that those of untreated rats. These data indicate that GnRHm1-TT vaccine may be a potential candidate in the treatment of PC, BC, and other hormone-dependent cancers.